How to build a winning accumulator bet

How to build a winning accumulator bet

Accumulators (acca bets, combi bets) are fairly popular among the punters in the world of betting. Mostly because It’s almost like the lottery because even one big winning coupon outshines the numerous failures. The huge win off multiplier with long odds just feels much more satisfying than a successful single bet. That’s just the nature of accumulator bets.

But in reality, very few bettors have long-term success with multipliers. This is because they are using the wrong approach: putting too many selections, hunting for beautiful round numbers, ignoring the juice. We hope this article will turn you into a pro when it comes to parlays.

Accumulator betting is trickier than it looks

To be successful with parlay wagers, you need to learn a few basic things about betting. First of all, there is always some margin in betting odds. For example, 1.86-1.86 at evens has a margin of 7% or 93% payout (0.93). The payout at some markets and events may differ.

As you know, accumulators are about multiplying the odds of all bets. Imagine you add two picks into the betting slip: 1.92 and 1.92 on even line. You’ll get a 3.685 overall price. But you are probably missing the main thing: odds are multiplying, so as the margin. Here we go: 0.96 (1.92) x 0.96 (1.92) = 0.9216 or 92.16%. The payout is almost 4% lower now. That’s why so many sportsbooks encouraging player for combi bets by offering boosts: 10% for 6 selections, 15% for 7 selections and so on. In reality, those boosts are nothing compared to the cutback of payout.

So, betting with accumulators is a bad idea math-wise? Not really, if you are good at finding value odds. If all selections are with a positive value, then the mathematics will work another way. Just to be clear: value odds occurs when bookmaker underestimated odds. It means the real probability of something to happen is higher than bookie’s price implies.

How to build a good acca: checklist

Odds with a positive value is brick and mortar for the continuous success of your parlays. So, first of all, you have to learn how to search for attractive prices. In our other article, we revealed the best ways to find value.

Finding juice is very important when you are trying to build a successful accumulator. But there are also some other factors to deal with. Here is our short guideline:

  • Set a limit for a maximum number of picks. Normally, you shouldn’t go over 15, even 10 selections would be just fine. Very loaded accumulators are far more prone to unexpected losses;
  • Build a core of your multiplier with 2-3 selections of long odds and surround it with shorter selections. Although, you need to be cautious with very short odds. Better to avoid stuff under 1.1;
  • Don’t be afraid to work with evens if you see value in them;
  • Ignore sports, leagues, and markets you have no clue about. Use your sporting knowledge in your favor;
  • Remember that a smart approach in betting payoffs long-term. If you are working with 50.0-100.0 odds, then even 20-30 losses in a row are nothing;
  • Use promotions in your favor. Many brands offer boosts for long accumulators, as well as a refund (insurance). It would be silly not to take advantage of it.

With a disciplined and moderate approach, you are going to feel a sweet taste of winning accumulator more frequently. Search selections with some juice in it, put them to the slip and follow our tips. Hopefully, you won't have to wait long for a major win.

Author:

Art Aronson is a tenured bottom-line professional sports handicapper. He is the best ROI handicapper in the business. He is not your typical handicapper.

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