Sports, in general, are about winning. So, by default, there is always the one who is losing. This is not the case with football, where matches could be drawn. The three-way character of results of football matches viewed by some punters as a weakness (from a betting point of view). Are draws really that bad for betting? We’ll answer this question in the article below.
On average, about 20-40% of league matches end up as a draw. But the percentage in top leagues (like EPL, La Liga, Serie A) is usually below 30%. This is mostly because the level of teams in elite leagues varies more in comparison to lower tiers. At the same time, an average bettor at the sportsbook rarely bets on the draw. That’s because most of the punters have a black and white type of mindset and usually distinguish favorites and underdogs. With most of the wagered money backing 1 (team1 winning) or 2(team2 winning) options, the value often appears on X (draw).
Having checked some stats, we found some interesting correlation: If the expected total of a match is under 2.5, then the probability of a draw is higher. Even without stats, this statement looks logically sound. Because if teams won’t score more than 2 goals, then 0-0 or 1-1 is very likely results. There is also one important condition of this strategy: no draw for teams in their last respective matches.
So, three main conditions for universal betting on draw strategy:
*Using an early line of Pinnacle.
The following results of this strategy in the 2012-18 period from 41 leagues: the Yield is 11.67% on the run of 638 bets. Check the graph below.
But the biggest value for draw betting hides in lower leagues. The thing is that the level of teams here (lower divisions) isn’t all that different. Hence, the draws happen more often in Championship or Bundesliga 2 than in EPL or Bundesliga. Also, the tie is often a satisfying result for both teams. And the shady part: match-fixing is present on a lower level, and you can’t ignore that. Just in recent years, there were scandals in Serie B, La Liga and Bundesliga 2.
The approach to this strategy is quite different. You need to choose matches, where the visitor team is the bookmaker’s favorite but also has poor recent results on the road. Most bettors would either think that the visitor just can’t play outside of the home stadium, or that a home team is just plain bad. So almost all money will be backed for home/away win, creating value on X. As you can see, the truth lies somewhere in the middle (draw).
The results from the 2012-2018 period are sensational: Yield is 17,98% in the distance of 220 matches. Check out the graph below.
Strategies above based on past results, and might not be effective in the future. But we just proved that betting on a draw in football can be very profitable. And you should never ignore the X option at Moneyline.
Art Aronson is a tenured bottom-line professional sports handicapper. He is the best ROI handicapper in the business. He is not your typical handicapper.
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