Borders and Grapa: Dawson vs. Ferreira Fight Prediction

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2025-01-19 00:30
UFC Lightweight
2025-01-19 00:30:00
UFC Lightweight
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UFC 311 is set to feature a lightweight showdown between Grant Dawson and Diego Ferreira on January 19, 2025 in Los Angeles. Diego Ferreira can win if he manages to avoid ground fighting and continue attacking on the ground, where his experience and striking skills will be decisive. Grant Dawson, in turn, needs to seize the initiative as quickly as possible and take the fight to the ground, where his chances of winning will be high.

Grant Dawson (USA)

Grant Dawson is an American fighter known for his exceptional wrestling skills. He primarily relies on controlling his opponents on the ground, preferring to tire them out before going for the finish. While his striking is solid, it is not his strongest asset, and he usually looks to dominate with his grappling. His physical conditioning allows him to maintain pressure on his opponents, especially in longer bouts.

However, Dawson is not without his flaws. In October 2023, he suffered a knockout loss to Bobby Green, but quickly bounced back, securing victories over Joe Solecki (via decision) and Rafa Garcia (via TKO). These wins proved Dawson’s ability to recover and stay on track after setbacks.

Diego Ferreira (Brazil)

Diego Ferreira is a seasoned Brazilian fighter who has earned respect in the MMA world with his well-rounded skills. His striking and grappling techniques are both top-notch, and he is able to adapt to any opponent, making him a dangerous and unpredictable competitor. Unlike Dawson, Ferreira can switch between styles seamlessly, adjusting his approach depending on the flow of the fight.

Despite being 39, Ferreira is still performing at a high level. Recent victories over Michael Johnson (via knockout) and Mateusz Rebecki (via TKO) show he is far from slowing down. However, he has faced top-tier fighters like Mateusz Gamrot, Gregor Gillespie, and Beneil Dariush, all of whom defeated him via TKO or decision. These losses highlight that Ferreira, despite his experience, is vulnerable against the best in the division.

Tactical Breakdown

Grant Dawson’s primary strength lies in his grappling. He excels at bringing the fight to the ground, where he looks to tire out his opponents and control them. While Dawson can be dangerous on the mat, he is often less effective in the striking department. If the fight stays standing, it could be a tough challenge for him, especially against a skilled striker like Ferreira.

On the other hand, Diego Ferreira is more versatile, with the ability to excel both in striking and grappling. He is particularly dangerous when the fight stays on the feet, where his experience and technical striking shine through. Ferreira’s adaptability allows him to adjust to his opponent’s game plan, and he is excellent at using his own skills to counter whatever is thrown at him.

Prediction

The outcome of this fight will likely depend on which fighter can implement their game plan more effectively. If Dawson can successfully take the fight to the ground and control Ferreira, he could claim the win. However, Ferreira’s adaptability and striking ability give him a significant advantage, especially if he can avoid being taken down and keep the fight in the stand-up range.

Predicted Winner: Diego Ferreira. Despite his age, Ferreira’s more flexible and well-rounded style makes him the favorite in this matchup. If he can keep the fight standing, his striking experience and skills will likely carry him to victory.

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Prediction

Grant Dawson will likely have the upper hand in this fight, as his superior grappling and ability to control his opponents on the ground will be key. While Ferreira is dangerous in the stand-up and has the experience advantage, Dawson’s wrestling can neutralize his striking. It’s expected that Dawson will take the fight to the mat early and dominate from there. Most likely, Grant Dawson will win by decision or TKO in the later rounds.

Bet: P2

Odds: 3.55

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