Current Form: Nicolás Jarry has had a rough start to the season. So far, he has four losses in seven matches, and his performance on clay has been underwhelming. His recent loss to Francisco Cerundolo in Rio de Janeiro, where he lost in three sets, highlights the instability in his game this season.
Strengths: Jarry has a strong serve and an aggressive forehand, which makes him a dangerous opponent, especially on clay. However, he has yet to find success this season.
Achievements: Last season, Jarry reached the quarterfinals of the tournament in Santiago, and during this tournament, he showed strong results in matches with several tiebreaks.
Current Form: Ugo Carabelli has had a strong start to the season, winning the Challenger in Rosario in early February. Additionally, at the Rio de Janeiro tournament, he reached the semifinals, despite entering the main draw as a lucky loser. His loss in the semifinals to Sebastián Báez in three sets, despite dropping the second set in a rout, demonstrates his stability and high level of play on clay.
Strengths: Carabelli is known for his strategy of long rallies. He is patient, willing to engage in long exchanges and wait for his opponent’s mistake, which is particularly effective on clay courts. He excels in long matches, often winning three-set battles.
Achievements: Winning the Challenger in Rosario in February and reaching the semifinals in Rio de Janeiro are great accomplishments for a player looking to solidify his place in the top 100. He is currently ranked 91st in the ATP rankings.
This match promises to be interesting, with strong competition on clay. Despite Jarry’s occasional instability, he remains a strong player, particularly on clay. However, Carabelli appears to be more consistent and confident at the moment, which may give him the edge in long rallies and given his recent success in the season. Carabelli has demonstrated his resilience and confidence on clay, as well as stable results in recent tournaments.
Expected Winner: Ugo Carabelli.
Odds for Ugo Carabelli to win: 1.75 (estimated odds based on the current form of both players).
Ugo Carabelli has a solid chance of success in this matchup. The Argentine is in great form and delivered a strong performance in Rio. Even in his semifinal loss to Báez, he played admirably and managed to take a set from his compatriot. Although Jarry will have the home advantage, we don't expect an easy win for him. Nicolás has yet to show his best tennis, so it won't be a straightforward victory.
Our prediction is a total of over 22.5 games at odds of 1.86.
