Galarneau has won 10 out of his last 15 matches on hard courts this season, indicating his consistency. He defeated Arthur Cazaux in the first round of qualifying, demonstrating good baseline play and effectively using his forehand.
Strengths: The Canadian has excellent baseline technique and great stability, especially on hard courts. His forehand is a powerful weapon capable of winning crucial points.
Achievements: Galarneau has won two titles in his career, with his most recent victory at the 2023 Granby Challenger. He is currently ranked 163rd in the ATP standings.
Carreño Busta achieved a comeback victory in the first round of qualifying, defeating Zachary Swayda. His play on hard courts has improved despite a decline in mobility due to age, which has led him to adopt a more aggressive playing style focused on serving.
Strengths: Carreño Busta has improved his aggressive game and solid serve. His change in playing style has paid off, as he has already won two titles this season at the Tenerife Challengers.
Achievements: Carreño Busta has 32 titles, seven of which are ATP-level titles. He is currently ranked 112th in the world, and his 11-match win streak has stabilized his form.
Carreño Busta is in great form, with his 11-match win streak reflecting his stability. While Galarneau showed strong results in qualifying, the Spaniard has a more experienced and diverse skill set, giving him an edge in longer rallies.
Despite reduced mobility, Carreño Busta has successfully adapted, choosing a more aggressive playing style that allows him to compete well on hard courts.
Galarneau can put up a fight, but for a win, he will need to play exceptionally well, especially given Carreño Busta’s experience at the ATP level.
Winner: Pablo Carreño Busta. Expected Odds for Carreño Busta’s Victory: 1.60-1.75.
Carreno Busta has been on a solid run, currently boasting 11 straight victories. Of course, at 33 years old, his energy is not limitless, and some fatigue may have built up. However, we believe that a player like Galarneau is someone he should be able to overcome.
Our prediction is a Carreño Busta win with a -4 game handicap, at odds of 1.93.
