Introduction to NFL Totals
The NFL and college football season is right around the corner, so if you are planning to bet some of those games, today is not a day too soon to start preparing. Taking a little extra time to learn what you need to know before the season starts will give you a big edge over the majority of bettors. Football fans are notorious for waiting until the day of the game to even have an inkling what their bets will be, only to wonder why, week after week, they are betting into inferior numbers and losing. The handicappers in the newspapers may need to make a pick on all of the NFL games, but unless you are entering a football pool where a pick on every weekly matchup is required, you don’t. It takes a lot of discipline to forego betting on the game you know you will be watching on TV when it is not a good wagering proposition.
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But to stand any chance of coming out ahead for the season, not giving in purely out of habit is a must. There are also far too many college football games every weekend to warrant getting involved with more than a handful. The key to winning is to be selective. First you have the Fall of Fame Game kicking off 4 weeks of preseason games, then 3 months of regular season NCAA games and 4 months of regular season NFL games. Then, as if all that isn’t enough football, a whole lot more is on the way in the college bowls, NFL Playoffs, and Super Bowl!
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Every NFL game, along with a large number of college football games, typically provides two basic types of betting options, the side (which of the two teams will cover the point spread) and the over/under or total bet (whether you think the total number of points scored by both teams combined will be over or under the designated number). Depending on where you place your bets, there might be many other betting options open to you such as money lines, teasers, parlays, bets on each quarter, and an entirely new point spread and over/under line bet for the second half of the game. But this article focuses specifically on over and under betting.
One nice feature about betting on totals is that you don’t need to concern yourself with which teams wins and which team loses and by how much at all. As long as the total number of points scored by both teams combined is greater than the over/under line if you bet the over or less than the over/under line if you bet the under, you are a winner. In other words, if the over/under line is 44 and the final score is 24-21 in overtime, the “over” bet is a winner, just as the “over” bet would also be a winner if the other team is on top with a final score of 42-3. By the way, if you want local bookmakers, follow the link to get a list of legal and verified bookmakers.
Depending on where you will be betting, you may or may not be able to place an over/under bet in advance of the day of the game. Either way, it is important to know what the opening total on the game was and the extent to which that number has fluctuated up or down since that time. You should also have more than one place to bet, if possible, so you can shop around for the best numbers. If the particular number you are looking for doesn’t seem to be available anywhere, which will frequently be the case, you need to decide ahead of time how far off the existing number can be from the desired number before it becomes unbettable. Let’s say the best over/under number available to you is two full points off from the number you were hoping to find. You may say to yourself since the two teams together will probably score more than 50 points, two measly points shouldn’t make a difference. The fact is, two points can make a big difference, and there will be instances where what might have been a good over or under bet at the original number turns into a no bet for the discriminating player at the new number. An exclusive betting bonuses offer can sometimes be found through affiliate sites or newsletters.
How Over/Under Lines Are Determined
Long before you are able to “get down” on the games of your choice, professional line makers at big companies set the initial lines. Obviously, great care and precision, based on a variety of factors, must go into determining the numbers because ultimately, millions of dollars will be at stake.
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Once a consensus is reached, the opening line for both sides and totals is released to sportsbooks. Individual sportsbook managers then have the opportunity to further fine tune their lines based on what their own experts think and/or early betting permitted by certain designated individuals whose opinions they value.
By the time an over/under line is offered to the general public, more likely than not, it will have moved multiple times. Then, as more money starts coming in on the game and reaches its peak close to game time, individual sportsbooks can and most likely will change their over/under lines again to reflect whichever way the bettors are leaning. By then, important updated information on conditions like injuries and weather may also be available, not only to the sportsbooks, but also to the public. Obviously, if severe weather is being forecast for the area where a game will take place, the over/under line will drop. But football players are accustomed to playing in all kinds of inclement weather, so a knee jerk bet on the under isn’t necessarily warranted. There is a big difference between the minimal impact a downpour in September might have on scoring and the major impact of a blizzard in December.
Many bettors are under the mistaken impression that line makers and bookmakers are actually predicting that team A is going to score x points and team B is going to score y points and the total number of points that the two teams together will score is x + y. Unlike the bettor, they really don’t care which team wins the game and what the score is. The purpose of the line is simply to divide the action so that, faced with a 2-sided proposition, a sufficient proportion of bettors (ideally 50%) choose each of the two possible options. If the betting is heavily skewed one way or the other, sportsbooks and private bookmakers won’t make a profit unless the public is wrong. If the betting goes overwhelmingly one way and the public is right, the cost to a small bookmaking operation can be crippling. But if the betting is balanced, which side covers the spread and whether the total number of points is a win for the over or for the under doesn’t matter. The bookmaker still makes a profit because every bettor has to pay a “vig” (short for vigorish) on the bet, usually at the rate of $11 to $10.
Smart Line Shopping
As a rule, if you can place your football totals bets early, do so. Totals are a lot more volatile than sides, and early money is usually sharp money. So don’t wait until the last possible minute when, in all likelihood, the number you were hoping to find will be long gone. The exception is when the way you want to bet is the opposite of the way the public is betting, which can sometimes wind up being profitable.
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Nationalized TV games tend to attract a lot more action on the “over” than the “under.” After all, who wants to spend three hours watching a game where very little is happening. Furthermore, if you bet on the “under,” and the first couple of scores happen quickly, not only is rooting for neither team to score no fun at all; you will be on pins and needles for the rest of the game hoping the scoring pace slows down dramatically. On the other hand, statistically, the “over” is not always the better bet, and if you do bet the “under,” because you are bucking the public, you might get good value on the line.
Fortunately, not all “stores” post the same numbers and some are slower changing their totals lines than others. That is why if you are a large bettor having multiple places to play is imperative and small bettors, too, are strongly advised to line up alternatives and shop around rather than rely on one place exclusively.
How to Handicap NFL Totals
As a former sports advisory service operator, I frequently included NFL totals in my recommended plays for the week. I created my own offensive and defensive power ratings for every team, both home and away, which were continually adjusted and readjusted every week of the season. The resulting final score predictions then became the primary basis for my over/under selections. I knew I was usually on target because the vast majority of my numbers were within a point or two of the official Vegas numbers. Also, in the few games where the discrepancy was larger, closer to game day, the Vegas number became closer to my number. But every week there were at least a couple of games where I had a solid play on either the over and under, and these selections not only produced a high percentage of winners for my customers, but enabled me to win several national NFL totals handicapping contests.
If you are statistically inclined, you, too, might come up with your own way to predict NFL totals that is equally powerful or more so. If not, online research and/or a good sports advisory service can also steer you in the right direction. I recommend using the stats from the preseason as data to help you devise the power ratings for predicting totals in the regular season. However, because of all of the experimentation and adjustments taking place in different teams during the preseason, I do not recommend actually making any over/under bets until at least the first week of the regular season.
FAQ: Introduction to NFL Totals
What does “totals betting” mean in the context of NFL games?
Totals betting in NFL refers to placing a wager on the combined number of points scored by both teams in a game, regardless of which side wins. Sportsbooks set a line known as the over/under, and bettors predict whether the final score will go above or below this number. This type of bet is purely focused on game tempo, offensive production, and defensive capabilities. It allows bettors to avoid predicting the winner and instead concentrate on the game’s statistical patterns. Totals betting has gained popularity due to its simplicity and accessibility across matchups. It’s especially useful in games between two unpredictable teams where the point spread feels risky. Bettors often study past scoring averages, pace metrics, and injury reports to make informed decisions.
How do sportsbooks calculate totals for NFL matchups?
Bookmakers set totals based on complex models that incorporate team scoring trends, injury reports, weather conditions, and public perception. They analyze how each team performs offensively and defensively, both at home and on the road. Additionally, pace of play and red zone efficiency are included to forecast realistic scoring. Bookmakers also examine recent performance, including how defenses have handled similar offensive systems. Once the opening line is released, it’s adjusted depending on betting activity and new information. A surge of action on one side may move the number significantly. For bettors, understanding how totals are shaped gives insight into when to wager early or wait for value.
What influences whether an NFL game goes over or under the posted total?
Several factors determine whether a game surpasses or falls below the posted total, including offensive strategy, defensive schemes, and game pace. Weather also plays a crucial role, especially wind and rain that can hinder scoring efficiency. Injuries to key players, particularly quarterbacks and receivers, can slow down offensive output. Conversely, defensive injuries may lead to more scoring opportunities. The overall flow of the game—whether it becomes a shootout or a time-consuming ground battle—directly affects the result. Coaching decisions, especially in the red zone, can swing the total unexpectedly. Understanding these dynamics helps bettors avoid surface-level traps.
Why do many casual bettors prefer betting the over in NFL games?
Betting the over is psychologically more appealing because fans enjoy rooting for points, touchdowns, and exciting offensive play. The over aligns with entertainment value, which makes it popular among recreational bettors. This public bias often results in inflated lines, creating value on the under for more disciplined players. Bookmakers anticipate this behavior and sometimes set the total slightly higher than what analytics support. As a result, professional bettors frequently target the under when conditions suggest a slower or more conservative game. The popularity of overs doesn’t always align with actual outcomes. Overcoming emotional bias is key to successful totals betting.
How do live totals differ from pre-game totals in NFL betting?
Live totals shift throughout the game based on current score, pace, and game script. If a game starts slowly, the live total will often drop, potentially offering value to those expecting a second-half surge. Conversely, an early scoring burst can inflate the live total, making it harder to reach without sustained offense. Live bettors must quickly assess team momentum, in-game injuries, and weather changes. Time management and clock control in the second half also play crucial roles. Because the lines change rapidly, sharp bettors can exploit overreactions. Reacting with discipline and precision separates successful live betting from impulsive plays.
Does team familiarity in divisional games affect totals?
Yes, divisional matchups often trend toward the under due to familiarity between coaching staffs and player tendencies. When teams play each other twice per season, defensive coordinators are more prepared and strategies become conservative. These games often feature tight play-calling, physical defense, and fewer explosive plays. Historical data shows that late-season divisional games especially lean under the total. However, not all rivalries follow the same pattern, and current form still matters. Bettors should analyze recent head-to-head results and any significant personnel changes. Division familiarity adds a unique layer to totals analysis that should not be overlooked.
How does pace of play influence totals in NFL games?
Pace of play refers to how quickly teams run plays, typically measured in seconds per snap or total plays per game. Faster-paced teams create more opportunities for scoring by maximizing possessions. Slower-paced teams, on the other hand, aim to control the clock and limit opponent chances. When two slow teams face off, totals often stay under unless turnovers or special teams plays shift the rhythm. Understanding how each team approaches game tempo provides clarity when evaluating totals. These metrics are less obvious to the average bettor, offering an edge to those who dig deeper. Pace should always be assessed alongside scoring efficiency.
What role does red zone efficiency play in NFL totals betting?
Red zone efficiency measures how often a team converts red zone appearances into touchdowns instead of settling for field goals. High efficiency means more points per trip, increasing the likelihood of hitting the over. Teams that frequently reach the red zone but fail to capitalize may frustrate over bettors. Strong red zone defenses also contribute to unders by limiting damage. Bettors should study both teams’ offensive and defensive conversion rates inside the 20-yard line. This data provides a clearer picture of scoring potential than total yardage alone. Red zone metrics are especially relevant in games with tight point spreads.
How should bettors handle weather when betting NFL totals?
Weather significantly impacts totals, especially in open-air stadiums. High winds disrupt passing accuracy and field goal attempts, leading to fewer points. Rain and snow can slow down the game and lead to conservative play-calling. Cold temperatures affect kicking distance and ball handling. Bettors must monitor forecasts closely and understand how each team performs in different conditions. Indoor games are more predictable and often result in higher scoring. Adjusting for weather is a fundamental part of totals betting, and ignoring it can lead to poor results. Successful bettors combine meteorological insights with matchup data.
What are common mistakes when betting NFL totals?
One frequent mistake is betting based solely on average points scored, without considering matchup dynamics. Another is ignoring weather forecasts that can drastically alter scoring potential. Bettors also tend to chase overs after a high-scoring game, not realizing that regressions often follow. Failure to account for pace, red zone performance, or coaching philosophy leads to oversimplified decisions. Some overlook injury reports or assume backup players won’t affect outcomes. Totals betting requires nuanced evaluation, not just surface-level stats. Avoiding emotional plays and relying on detailed analysis separates sharp bettors from the rest.