We have written many bowl articles over the years that have led to big winnings at the expense of the books. Here are some of the most important elements to remember.
The Dictionary as a Handicapping Tool: For whatever reason unbeknownst to sharp players, so many gamblers put too high a price on road record in picking games on a neutral field. A neutral game is just that – no more a road game than a home game.
Ticket Sales: We do pay close attention to how much of their allotments a team sells of their tickets. However, it’s not just for what many would consider the obvious reason – which team could have more of a “12th man” cheering section.
One of the keys for a handicapper is to distinguish which teams are merely in a consolation game and which consider their postseason contest to be significant. Years of study has shown us it’s rare when a bowl is big for the fans but not for the players and visa versa. This is especially so when ticket sale discrepancies are not explained by each team’s proximity to where the game is being played.
So in short, unless a bowl is essentially a geographic home game for one squad, if one team sold 20,000 tickets and the other 4,000, it’s a strong sign the game is much more important to the former school.
Long Layoffs: Another myth is the proverbial “go with the team that enters the preseason hotter”. The long layoff hurts teams that had momentum going and gives squads that finished on a skid time to make adjustments.
Leave Conference Bowl Records for the Media: Don’t go too overboard looking at early bowl conference performances when handicapping the later bowls.
Quality of competition, low sample size and so many other factors go into which conference is 3-0 and which is 0-3 in bowl games. Don’t overlook all other factors and assume how one or two teams from a conference does early is more accurate than full season strength of schedule ratings. Power ratings we use are adjusted as bowl season goes on. However proper, not reactionary changes are made.
If anything, the bowls have a few more “don’ts” for the postseason as the bowls bring out some of gambling’s top myths. But for the most part, everything that works in the regular season applies in the postseason with some adjustments made for the so-called intangible factors. Power ratings we use are adjusted as bowl season goes on. However such ratings use proper and not reactionary strength of schedule changes.
Before betting on bowls, bettors should understand the format of different bowling events, including the various types of bowls (such as lawn bowls and ten-pin bowling). Familiarity with player statistics, recent performance, and event conditions can help in making informed betting decisions.
Common types of bets in bowling include match result bets, total pins scored, head-to-head matchups between players, and bets on specific performance metrics like strikes or spares. Bettors can also wager on tournament outcomes and individual game achievements.
Recent player performance is crucial in bowling betting. Analyzing players' recent scores, consistency, and form can provide insights into their likely performance in upcoming matches. Players with strong recent performances are generally more favorable betting choices.
Event conditions, such as the type of bowling alley, lane conditions, and tournament settings, can impact performance. Bettors should consider how these factors might affect players' performances and adjust their betting strategies accordingly.
Statistical analysis can enhance betting on bowls by providing insights into players' past performances, average scores, and historical match outcomes. Key statistics to analyze include strike rates, spare conversions, and consistency across different conditions.
Successful betting strategies for bowls include researching player statistics, understanding event formats, and considering how different conditions affect performance. Keeping track of recent form and adjusting bets based on player and event-specific insights also improve betting success.
Risk management in betting on bowls involves setting a clear budget, avoiding bets based on emotions, and diversifying bets across different players or events. Maintaining discipline and making informed decisions helps mitigate potential losses and manage overall risk.
