Robert Frost wrote a classic poem about the “Road Not Taken” in which he chooses “the one less taken by” This may be a great lesson in life, but not so much in sports handicapping.
Sharp players are like scientists. We are always cultivating and purifying our theories. Working on a tip from one of SportsLine360 Board of Directors and pro bettor Jerry McCarn, a supposition has been tested and added to ratifying such process.
When one team has played a disproportionate percentage of their games on the road, they generally are undervalued and not surprisingly, when a squad has played a disproportionately home heavy schedule, they are typically overrated.
This hypothesis essentially further supports or in some cases, counters the home/road dichotomy or “splits” used by many bettors, present company included. It also fills in a missing piece in even some of the more accurate strength of schedule ratings, in that it greatly helps isolate important angles in that line of thinking.
A meeting of teams that have each fitting into the extremes of such category is not all that uncommon. Unbalanced schedules are par for the course over a season. When one team has played approximately 60 percent of the games at home, the other the same ratio on the road, we do at least put a red checkmark in the column of the team that has done the more traveling.
The reason for this is simple. As we have said, the most overused statistic in sports gambling is the respective teams straight up won-loss records. Oddsmakers know teams with superior straight up records always get the public betting affection.
Not only does the sharp player know better, but the sharpest of them all can spot a disingenuous winning percentage. A simple review of a team’s schedule to date is a supreme starting point. We will add a follow-up to Mr.
Frost’s writing that taking the road less traveled does have its remuneration, but only if paved the way by excursions on the road most traveled.
Art Aronson is a tenured bottom-line professional sports handicapper. He is the best ROI handicapper in the business. He is not your typical handicapper.
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