Sabalenka confidently started the tournament, passing through the first two rounds with ease. In her opening match, she had a slight challenge against American player Kessler (7-6, 6-3), but then dominated Italy’s Bronzetti (6-1, 6-2).
Overall, Aryna has been in excellent form leading up to the BNP Paribas Open. In 2025, she has already secured 15 wins with only 3 losses. In January, she claimed the title in Brisbane and then reached the Australian Open final, where she narrowly missed out on victory. Despite that, she has maintained her status as the world’s No. 1 player.
Strengths: Sabalenka is a powerful attacking player with incredible physical abilities. Her playing style is built around aggressive baseline shots and a dominant first serve, which allows her to earn easy points. Over the past few seasons, Aryna has significantly improved her rally game, becoming more patient and no longer rushing to finish points with one shot.
Current form: Sonay Kartal has been one of the biggest surprises of the tournament. Just a week ago, she wasn’t even supposed to be in the main draw but entered as a lucky loser and made the most of her opportunity. She has already secured several notable victories, defeating Varvara Lepchenko, Polina Kudermetova, and Beatriz Haddad Maia. However, it’s worth noting that Haddad Maia was not in peak form, and Kartal benefited from a favorable draw.
Strengths: Unlike her opponent, Kartal leans more toward a defensive style of play. She performs well from the baseline, keeping the ball in play consistently and making few unforced errors. However, she lacks a powerful serve, which makes it harder for her to win easy points.
On paper, this matchup appears one-sided. Sabalenka is the world’s top-ranked player with extensive experience and a powerful playing style, while Kartal is still finding her place in big tournaments. The British player will struggle to keep up with Aryna’s intensity, and her lack of a strong serve will make it difficult to gain easy points. Most likely, Sabalenka will secure a dominant win in two sets.
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-0 in sets.
Odds for Sabalenka’s victory: 1.72.
This match presents an excellent opportunity for Sabalenka to advance and compete for the title, while for Kartal, it’s a valuable experience at this level. However, an upset here seems highly unlikely.
We anticipate that Kartal's remarkable run will come to an end today. So far, the British player has benefited from a favorable draw, avoiding truly tough opponents. Given her defensive playing style, it will be extremely challenging for her to withstand Sabalenka’s relentless attacking pressure. Just recently, Aryna dismantled Bronzetti with a nine-game margin, and a similar outcome seems likely in this match.
Our prediction: Sabalenka to win with a -6 game handicap at odds of 1.72.
