Before the Australian Open, Ben Shelton competed in Auckland, where he lost to Menchik in the Round of 16 in three sets. During this tournament, the American has been impressive, securing wins against Nakashima (3-0), Carreño Busta (3-1), Musetti (3-1), and Monfils, who retired in the fourth set. Shelton is in excellent form.
Lorenzo Sonego, ahead of the Australian Open, won tournaments in Hong Kong and Auckland. At this event, he has been on a strong run, defeating Wawrinka (3-1), Fonseca (3-2), Marozhan (3-1), and Tien (3-1). Sonego is in superb physical and playing condition.
The two have faced each other twice, with a 1-1 record. In 2022, at the Cincinnati Masters, Shelton won in three sets (7-6, 3-6, 7-5), while in 2023, Sonego won in four sets at the French Open (6-4, 3-6, 6-3, 6-3).
Shelton is currently ranked 20th in the world, and for the past two seasons, he has finished in the top 25. His first serve percentage at this Australian Open has been no lower than 59%. Sonego is ranked 55th, and has consistently finished in the top 60 since 2019. His first serve percentage here is 62%.
On hard courts this season, Sonego has posted 6 wins and 2 losses, while Shelton has 4 wins and 1 loss. Shelton has always finished his seasons with a positive win-loss record on hard courts, with a 30-17 record in 2024. On the other hand, Sonego has had negative results on hard courts in recent years, including a 14-19 record in 2024.
Sonego has lost three serves during the tournament but has saved at least 75% of break points in every match. He wins over 77% of points on his first serve. Shelton, in his last three matches, has won over 80% of first serve points and saved 67% of break points.
Sonego has been playing the best tennis of his career at this tournament, with a positive balance of winners (+22 in three matches), despite facing tough opponents. Shelton, however, has been prone to errors, averaging more than 10 unforced errors per set. Sonego holds his serve well, and given the way he’s playing, he should at least stay competitive in this match. A +3.5 games handicap for Sonego at a 2.03 odds looks like a solid bet.
In this match, I expect Ben Shelton to win (P1, 1.33). He is in great shape, with a strong serve and excellent statistics on the first sword. Sonego also looks good, but Shelton has an advantage in attacking play and stability. The probable score is 3-1 in favor of Shelton, with a total of over 42.5 (1.94), as both players demonstrate high efficiency.
Our prediction: Ben Shelton will win with a score of 3-1.
The odds for his victory are 1.33.
