Match snapshot
Venezia FC vs Udinese Calcio
· Serie A 2026/27, Matchday 11 · Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo
Venezia FC vs Udinese Calcio prediction: Venezia FC to win in the 90-minute 1X2 market at a recorded 1xBet price of 2.22, with Low confidence. Udinese’s defensive problems provide an opening, but Venezia have not scored for three league games.
Main risk: Venezia have scored only six league goals and gone 311 minutes without one. Udinese’s Nicolo Zaniolo and Matteo Palma both scored against Roma, while a draw or an away win loses the home selection. Udinese’s 4 November preview.
OddsRun’s 90-minute 1X2 comparison displayed Venezia FC home win at 2.22 (1xBet, 90-minute 1X2 home selection) when inspected . A 2 November OddsFilter snapshot also lists the selected home price. Neither source is the bookmaker’s own page. The raw implied probability of a home win at 2.22 is 45.0% before margin; this is not fair odds or proof of value.
Analysis updated: . The Venezia FC match notice and Udinese fixture list confirm the kickoff.
Source policy: Quotes and team details are dated observations, not live guarantees. See Odds2Win’s prediction methodology and data corrections policy.
Match context
Results that explain the pressure
- Venezia’s league position: Davide Nicola’s team are 20th with three points from ten games (W1 D0 L9), having scored six and conceded 20. Their sole win was 1–0 against Napoli; defeats followed at Genoa (1–0), against Inter (2–0) and at Como (1–0). Napoli report; Genoa report; Inter report; Como report.
- Udinese’s league record: Nineteenth on five points (W1 D2 L7), with 11 scored and 23 conceded. Their last two league games brought a 0–0 draw at Parma and a 5–2 home loss to Roma. Udinese conceded four before half-time against Roma, with their former coach citing defensive mistakes. Parma match report; Roma match report; Post-match comments.
- The venue question: Venezia have one victory from five home league matches, so home advantage is not established by results alone. Napoli illustrates Nicola’s compact approach, not a reliable home-win trend. Venezia’s assessment of Napoli.
- Changed dugouts: Venezia appointed Nicola on 14 October. Udinese relieved Kosta Runjaic of his duties on 2 November and appointed Paolo Zanetti, who makes his competitive debut here against his former club. A managerial debut is not proof of improvement or decline. Nicola appointment; Zanetti appointment.
Pre-match availability: reports, not confirmed lineups
- Venezia FC: A probable-lineups update published on 5 November lists Andrea Adorante, Borna Franjic and Marin Sverko out, with Thierry Correia doubtful. These are reports, not a confirmed squad. Dated lineup report.
- Udinese Calcio: The same 5 November report lists David Alaba, Idrissa Gueye and Alessandro Zanoli as unavailable. A separate local report dated 4 November says Oumar Solet and Vakoun Bayo had rejoined group training; neither is a confirmed starter. Probable lineups; Training report.
Udinese won a Coppa Italia meeting between these clubs 2–1 in September. That cup result carries little weight here. Official meeting history.
Why the pick
This is a cautious home lean. Venezia’s six goals in ten matches argue against a comfortable win.
The routes to a Venezia win
- Defend first, then choose moments to attack: Nicola said on 5 November that Venezia had concentrated on their defensive phase and now needed greater courage in moving forward. Against Napoli, that approach produced a 1–0 win. It could keep this contest close. Nicola’s pre-match comments; Napoli match.
- Udinese’s defensive lapses are concrete: Four goals conceded before half-time against Roma and 23 across ten league games show real vulnerability. Venezia need only one well-executed transition or set-piece chance if they defend as they did against Napoli. It is only one possible scenario. Udinese v Roma; Defensive comments.
- Udinese face a coaching reset: Zanetti took charge only this week. The reset may disrupt roles, but his Venezia experience could help. Nicola offers greater continuity. Club confirmation.
The strongest objections
- Venezia have not scored for 311 minutes: Their three latest league fixtures ended without a goal. A 0–0 draw would sink the home 1X2 bet even if Nicola’s defensive plan works. Udinese pre-match numbers.
- Udinese retain more attacking outlets: Zaniolo and Palma scored against Roma, and a return for Solet or Bayo would alter the available options. Venezia have conceded 20 themselves, so a single away counter could undo a controlled match. Roma record; Player training news.
- Models disagree with this preference: An independent, unvalidated OddsFilter statistical model favours Udinese or the draw and assigns only 10% to a home win. Its calibration is unknown, but the disagreement reinforces the Low confidence and lack of proven value.
Early-game test: Watch whether Venezia can release Adams into space after regaining possession. If the hosts only absorb pressure without threatening, the home-win case weakens quickly.
Recommended bets
The main market is the standard 90-minute 1X2, not qualification or Draw No Bet. At recorded odds of 2.22, a 100-unit stake returns 222 including the stake (122 net) after a Venezia win. A draw or Udinese win loses the stake. The raw break-even home-win rate is 45.0%; no calibrated assessment establishes that the true probability exceeds it. The predicted winner therefore is not a proven value bet.
| Market | Pick | Why it fits + risk |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Venezia FC to win · 2.22 | Udinese’s defensive errors and Venezia’s compact home plan offer a narrow route. A goal drought, new-coach response and draw make this Low confidence; no edge is proven. |
| DNB | Not assessed | Draw No Bet would ordinarily refund the stake on a level full-time score, but no separately evaluated bookmaker quote and time were recorded. |
| Total | Not assessed | The estimated 1–0 score is a possible match scenario, not evidence that any goal line offers value. No priced total is recommended. |
Final verdict
Prediction: Venezia FC to win at the recorded 1xBet comparison price of 2.22, full-time 1X2.
A Venezia win requires an improvement in their finishing while maintaining defensive discipline. Udinese’s defensive errors offer an opening, but their better attack keeps this a weak preference.
FAQ
When is Venezia FC vs Udinese Calcio?
Kick-off is at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo in Serie A Matchday 11. Official match notice.
What is the predicted 1X2 outcome?
Venezia FC to win at recorded 2.22, with Low confidence. Only a home victory after 90 minutes wins the bet.
Where was the price found?
OddsRun’s comparison table displayed 1xBet Venezia 2.22 in the home 1X2 column when inspected . OddsFilter separately retains a 2 November snapshot at the same home price. Neither confirms that 1xBet still offers the price at kickoff.
What could change the forecast?
Confirmed lineups, especially Venezia’s forwards and Udinese’s returning players, may alter the balance. A price change or a more aggressive Udinese setup would also require a new assessment.
Disclaimer
Football predictions are uncertain. Recorded comparison prices can be delayed and do not guarantee availability, outcomes or profit. Quoted odds are not fair odds and do not establish positive expected value. Betting carries financial risk.