Match snapshot
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
· Premier League 2026/27, Matchweek 10 · Selhurst Park
Crystal Palace welcome Liverpool to Selhurst Park, with Liverpool favoured in our full-time 1X2 prediction. The pick is Liverpool to win at recorded decimal odds of 1.66, attributed to 1xBet through OddsFilter. Liverpool have won three successive league away games; Palace have lost three straight without scoring. Recent Liverpool defeats, draw risk and price sensitivity temper the pick.
Main risk: Liverpool lost to Arsenal and Fenerbahçe in their last two outings, while Palace won the previous home league meeting 2–1. A draw or home win loses a 90-minute AWAY 1X2 bet. Premier League’s match analysis.
OddsFilter’s 90-minute 1X2 board shows 1xBet at 1.66 in Liverpool’s AWAY (2) column. OddsFilter labels the 1X2 market table as a captured historical board; its capture time is earlier than the independent review on . Raw implied probability: 60.2% (100 ÷ 1.66, rounded to one decimal, before margin adjustment). This is an archived third-party quote, not fair odds.
Analysis updated: . Official Premier League fixture amendment confirms the kickoff shown above in GMT+3.
Editorial record: AI-assisted analysis checked against official Premier League and club information, Opta’s published simulation outputs, and OddsFilter’s labelled market table. See Odds2Win’s prediction methodology and data and corrections policy.
Match context
Key context
- League standings: Liverpool are fifth on 15 points after nine games (W4 D3 L2), with 11 goals scored and nine conceded. Palace are 18th with seven points (W2 D1 L6), having scored nine and conceded a league-high 21. Those figures are context, not a win probability. Pre-match league table; official league analysis.
- Palace’s recent slide: Palace lost at Brighton (0–5) and Tottenham (0–2), between which they lost at home to Newcastle (0–2). Their previous league victory was over Nottingham Forest (3–1). Official Crystal Palace results.
- Home and away samples: Palace’s four Premier League home matches have yielded one win and three defeats, including losses to Manchester City, Ipswich and Newcastle. Liverpool’s four away matches produced three wins and a draw: at Ipswich, Bournemouth and Brentford, plus a draw at Newcastle. Palace results; Liverpool results.
- Different midweek experiences: Palace drew 1–1 at home to Hoffenheim in the Europa League despite going down to ten men. Liverpool lost 3–2 at Fenerbahçe in the Champions League after taking the lead twice. These European results affect recovery, not league totals. Official Palace results; Premier League report on Liverpool’s defeat.
- Palace availability: Jean-Philippe Mateta is suspended after his dismissal at Tottenham. Ismaïla Sarr, Chadi Riad and Takehiro Tomiyasu are listed as unavailable through injuries. Strand Larsen may replace Mateta; the XI is unconfirmed. Current absence list; Opta team preview.
- Liverpool availability: The club’s injury bulletin lists Conor Bradley, Jeremie Frimpong, Hugo Ekitike and Giovanni Leoni. Ryan Gravenberch missed both Arsenal and Fenerbahçe with a heel problem and is being assessed daily. Iraola called Gravenberch the only new doubt. Official injury list; latest Gravenberch update.
How the match might develop
- An early Liverpool goal: Palace might open space behind the wing-backs when chasing an equaliser.
- A level match deep into the second half: Palace could protect the middle and counter. Liverpool would need a late winner; a draw loses.
Early tactical test: Can Liverpool supply Isak without exposing midfield? Palace’s counters matter more than possession.
Why the pick
The expected winner and the betting price are separate questions; good away form alone does not establish a 60.2% win probability.
Reasons for Liverpool
- The travel-versus-home split: Liverpool took ten points from their opening four away league games, winning the last three. Palace collected only three points in four home fixtures and lost to Manchester City, Ipswich and Newcastle. The samples are small. Official Liverpool results; Palace results.
- A broader defensive warning: Opta records Palace as having faced 79 more shots than they have attempted in the league, the widest negative differential. They have trailed for 53.7% of match time, increasing concern about an early Liverpool opener. Opta’s pre-match analysis.
- Available attacking options: Liverpool’s Alexander Isak has scored six times in his first eight league appearances this season, according to Opta. Palace must replace the suspended Mateta, making the hosts’ attacking outlet less predictable. That supports the match pick, not its price. Opta player data.
Counterarguments
- Liverpool’s uneven recent performances: The Arsenal (0–1) and Fenerbahçe (2–3) defeats expose fragility, while Gravenberch’s fitness could affect midfield control.
- Draw and head-to-head resistance: Palace won 2–1 in this fixture at Selhurst Park last season; Liverpool have won just three of the last eight Premier League meetings between the clubs. Opta also makes a Liverpool win less likely than the market’s raw implied percentage. Old meetings are not current probabilities. Opta head-to-head analysis.
The illustrative 0–2 score is not a separately priced correct-score bet.
Recommended bets
1X2 market assessment: The selection is Liverpool to win at 1.66, with a 100-unit stake returning 166 units in total (66 net) on a win and losing 100 on a draw or Palace victory. Its raw break-even probability is 60.2%. However, Opta’s 10,000 pre-match simulations give Liverpool a 47.1% win share, Palace 28.5% and the draw 24.4%. OddsFilter’s independent statistical model puts Liverpool at 45%, without independent calibration. Both favour Liverpool over either other individual result, but not above the market threshold. Positive expected value at 1.66 is not established.
| Market | Pick | Why it fits + risk |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool to win · 1.66 | Away form favours Liverpool as the predicted winner. A draw loses; Opta’s 47.1% is below the 60.2% break-even mark. |
| DNB | Not assessed | Draw No Bet normally refunds the stake on a draw. No bookmaker-specific DNB quote has been independently evaluated. |
| Total | Not assessed | Palace’s defensive record suggests goal opportunities, but no verified priced edge on a particular total is established. |
Final verdict
Primary 1X2 prediction: Liverpool to win at a recorded 1.66 90-minute AWAY quote, attributed to 1xBet via OddsFilter.
The prediction is based on Liverpool’s away resilience and Palace’s defensive problems. External model estimates are less optimistic than the price. Review final lineups, and do not infer an edge from favouritism.
FAQ
When is Crystal Palace vs Liverpool?
The Premier League Matchweek 10 game at Selhurst Park starts on . The official Premier League scheduling notice confirms the kickoff.
What is the result prediction?
Liverpool to win in 90-minute 1X2 at 1.66. This identifies the winner, not a demonstrated price advantage.
Where was the 1X2 price recorded?
OddsFilter’s full-time 1X2 market table lists 1xBet at 1.66 in Liverpool’s AWAY (2) column. Its recorded market capture preceded our review on ; the two timestamps refer to different events. This is a third-party listing, not a direct live bookmaker offer or an independently preserved archive.
What could change the assessment?
A late change in Gravenberch’s status, Mateta’s replacement, the odds or independent probability evidence could change the selection. Each new price requires a fresh verified observation.
Disclaimer
Football predictions are uncertain; no result or profit is guaranteed. The third-party price does not establish fair value, live availability or positive expected value. Betting carries financial risk.