Closing Line Value Calculator: Compare Your Bet With the Closing Price
Calculate Your Raw Closing Line Value
Compare the decimal odds you accepted with the closing decimal odds for the same selection and line.
This calculator measures entry price versus closing price. Expected value, bookmaker margin, stake sizing and odds conversion are separate calculations.
Raw CLV Formula: Price-Ratio Method
The calculator reports both decimal-price movement and the corresponding raw implied-probability movement.
Raw closing line value
Raw CLV % = ((Entry decimal odds ÷ Closing decimal odds) − 1) × 100
For the same selection, higher decimal odds are better for the bettor. Entry odds above the closing price produce positive raw CLV. Entry odds below the closing price produce negative raw CLV. Identical prices produce zero.
Raw implied-probability movement
Probability move (pp) = ((1 ÷ Closing odds) − (1 ÷ Entry odds)) × 100
This converts each displayed price into raw implied probability and measures the difference in percentage points. Because bookmaker margin remains embedded in the prices, this is not a no-vig probability estimate.
Worked Example: 2.10 Entry vs 1.95 Close
These are the default values loaded into the calculator.
Assume you accepted decimal odds of 2.10 and the same selection later closed at 1.95. The closing price shortened, so the earlier 2.10 entry was the better price.
| Measure | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raw CLV | (2.10 ÷ 1.95 − 1) × 100 | +7.69% |
| Entry implied probability | 1 ÷ 2.10 × 100 | 47.62% |
| Closing implied probability | 1 ÷ 1.95 × 100 | 51.28% |
| Probability move | 51.28% − 47.62% | +3.66 pp |
The raw CLV result is +7.69%. The market's displayed implied probability moved from 47.62% to 51.28%, a change of +3.66 percentage points.
What Counts as a Comparable Closing Price?
Entry and closing observations need to describe the same bet.
- Same selection. A moneyline price should be compared with the closing moneyline price for that same team or outcome.
- Same market line. Over 2.5 and Over 2.75 are different bets. If the total or handicap moved, record the line movement separately.
- Same settlement period. Full-time, regulation-only, first-half and overtime-inclusive markets should not be mixed.
- Consistent closing source. Long-term tracking is easier to compare when the same source and closing-time rule are used across bets.
- Actual accepted entry. Record the price that was placed, rather than an earlier quote that was never accepted.
Limits of Raw Closing Line Value
The calculation is useful for price tracking, but its scope is narrower than a complete market-efficiency analysis.
- Bookmaker margin remains in the odds. The displayed entry and closing probabilities are raw implied probabilities. Removing overround requires prices for the complete outcome set.
- A changed handicap or total changes the bet. Odds-only CLV cannot fully describe a move from -2.5 to -3.0 or from Over 2.5 to Over 2.75.
- CLV and EV answer different questions. CLV compares your entry with a later market price. Expected value compares an available price with an independent fair-probability estimate.
- Closing markets are benchmarks, not guarantees. A positive CLV sample can be useful for evaluating execution, but it does not determine the result of an individual bet or guarantee future profit.
- Commission and special pricing can affect comparability. Exchange commission, boosted odds and unusual settlement terms should be recorded separately.
CLV vs EV, Margin and Odds Conversion
Each calculator measures a different part of the betting decision.
| Question | Tool | Inputs |
|---|---|---|
| Did my entry beat the closing price? | Closing Line Value Calculator | Entry odds + closing odds |
| Does my probability estimate imply positive EV? | Expected Value Betting Calculator | Odds + estimated probability |
| How much bookmaker margin is in a market? | Bookmaker Margin Calculator | Prices for all outcomes |
| What is the same price in another odds format? | Odds Converter | One odds quote |
Use CLV after recording an entry price and a comparable close. Use EV when you have your own probability estimate, margin analysis when you have the complete market, and the odds converter when only the display format needs to change.
Related Price and Value Tools
Closing Line Value FAQ
Should the closing odds come from the same bookmaker?
Using one bookmaker or one defined closing reference makes a tracking history more consistent. Changing the reference source from bet to bet can introduce differences caused by margin, liquidity or pricing policy rather than your entry timing.
Can a losing bet have positive CLV?
Yes. If you take 2.10 and the same selection closes at 1.95, this calculator records positive raw CLV even if the selection later loses. CLV measures price movement; win rate and ROI measure outcomes.
What if the spread or total changes before close?
Record the line change separately. Over 2.5 at 1.95 and Over 2.75 at 1.95 have the same displayed odds but different settlement conditions, so an odds-only CLV percentage cannot capture the full move.
Is positive CLV the same as positive expected value?
No. Positive CLV means your entry price was better than the selected closing benchmark. Positive expected value requires a fair-probability estimate that supports the price available when the bet is considered.