Back in last year I read with great interest article about favourites in the later stages of Grand Slam tennis tournaments. I locked this away in my “come back to this later” vault, but as things tend to do, it was quickly forgotten. That was until I was watching the recent World Cup round of 16, and noticed that favourite after favourite just kept winning. The more I thought about it, the more it made sense that favourites would do well in the later stages of tournament and leagues. Not only has the market had an extended period of exposed form to analyse, but with few games available to analyse and bet, the focus of the market is squarely on these available matches.
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So is this the case? Do favourites actually do well in finals/playoff matches?
To test this out I first looked at the finals matches of the last 5 seasons from the National Rugby League (NRL), and Australian Football League (AFL). Both leagues promote the top 8 teams from their respective regular season competitions to a four week finals series, and since 2019 both leagues have followed the same finals format.
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Interestingly over that period 71% of favourites won finals matches in both leagues. Betting blindly with level stakes on each favourite would have returned a -14% loss for the NRL, while the AFL returned a surprising 12%. This gives us an overall a loss of -2% across both sports. Not a very encouraging start for the theory, especially given that blindly betting the NRL underdogs returned -1%.
But if we take out the first round of the finals, and only look at quarter finals, qualifying finals, and grand finals something interesting happens. Suddenly the NRL’s loss becomes a 10% profit, while the AFL returns 32%. Only count the qualifying finals and grand final and the NRL returns 24% and the AFL 33%!
But it’s the grand final where the favourites really shine, in the combined 10 grand finals only the Sydney Swans in 2018 won as underdogs.
| National Rugby League | Australian Football League | |||||
| Round Counted From | Fav Win % | Dog Return % | Fav Return % | Fav Win % | Dog Return % | Fav Return % |
| Quarter Final | 72 | -21 | 10 | 92 | -81 | 32 |
| Semi Final | 80 | -45 | 24 | 93 | -83 | 33 |
| Grand Final | 100 | -100 | 62 | 80 | -50 | 31 |
| Total | 71 | -1 | -14 | 71 | -34 | 12 |
To test further I looked at the results of the recent NBA playoffs. The playoffs comprise a best of 7 series of matches, with alternating home court advantage. This gives us the perfect combination of both results without the advantage of a bye week or home ground, while a best of 7 series reduces the impact of “luck” that we may see in a one off match. In just one season of NBA Playoffs we also get a similar number of matches to that seen in the combined NRL and AFL results over 5 seasons (86 NBA matches compared to 90) .There are of course quite reasonable and rational explanations that can be made for these results. Quite simply both finals series are geared towards rewarding highly ranked teams from the regular season though “easier” opposition, home ground advantage, and bye weeks. So what if we looked at a sport where some of these factors are taken out of play, would we see the favourites get better the longer the finals progress?
From the beginning of the first round of the Playoffs, right through until game 5 of The Finals, 61% of favourites won matches, 10% less than that seen in the NRL and AFL. This was certainly not a promising start, blindly betting on all favourite would have lost you 13%, while doing the same with underdogs would have netted a very respectable 23% profit.
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But again, as we progressed through the Playoffs the number of favourites winning increased. Counting from the Conference Semis on, 67% of favourites won their matches returning a profit of 6%. From the Conference Finals onwards this increased to 74% of favourites winning for a profit of 16%. So not as high as what we saw with the NRL and AFL, but a 16% return on investment is certainly nothing to sneeze at. By the way, if you want to get betwinner promo code, follow the provided link. Victory will be yours!
| Round Counted From | Fav Win % | Dog Return % | Fav Return % |
| Conference Semis | 67 | -6 | 6 |
| Conference Finals | 74 | -35 | 16 |
| The Finals | 40 | 60 | -42 |
| Total | 61 | 23 | -13 |
What also may have skewed this particular season was San Antonio’s upset against the highly fancied Miami Heat in the 5 Finals matches. Only two favourites won in the five games series, meaning that betting on favourites only in The Finals would have lost 42%. This was very different from the results seen in the NRL and AFL so was worth investigating further, as there certainly could be a “Heat factor” at play.
I then wondered if the fact that the NBA did have 7 game series meant that team played differently than when defeat meant elimination for the year. It was in these circumstances that we saw the biggest returns across tennis, NRL and AFL. I wondered if running the test over another sport where more than one matches determined the team to progress would produce similar results, but my most obvious choices the Champions League and NHL both have a draw as a betting option at the end of regulation time so making a comparison would be difficult. I also contemplated using MLB, however with the pitcher being a significant part of the market offered I felt that again this would not be comparing apples with apples.
So instead I went to the NFL, where every game in the Playoffs is sudden death. Like the NRL and AFL, the NFL does have home ground advantage to higher placed teams until the Superbowl. Across 55 Playoff matches over the 5 season the favourite won 60% of the time, the lowest seen across all of the sports examined. Like the NBA, betting the underdog in each match would have made a profit (17%), while betting the favourite would have seen a loss of 14%.
However like all other sports, the favourites re-bounded from the Divisional round onwards, with 66% of teams winning, although you still would have lost 1% of your bankroll. It’s not until the Superbowl that we see something very strange, in the five seasons examined, only the Green Bay Packers won the Superbowl as favourites. Amazingly you would have made 91% profit blindly betting the underdog in each Superbowl.
| Round Counted From | Fav Win % | Dog Return % | Fav Return % |
| Divisional | 66 | 4 | -1 |
| Conference | 60 | 4 | -12 |
| Superbowl | 20 | 91 | -67 |
| Total | 60 | 17 | -14 |
So what can we gain from my very brief look into the performance of favourites in finals series? Well unfortunately not a lot, like all matches it is vitally important to handicap each event individually, and a blind betting strategy is unlikely to provide you with long term results. In collecting the data though it was interesting to uncover what were sides obviously under-rated by the market continuously causing upsets through a finals campaign. Teams like the Baltimore Ravens, Sydney Swans, and New Zealand Warriors won multiple matches as underdogs suggesting that they were not found in betting by many. Like all sport betting it may be about finding an edge and uncovering these gems which will provide the greatest returns in the long term.
Favourites often reach finals because of their overall strength, but dominating the final match is far from guaranteed. Finals tend to level the playing field due to the pressure, strategic caution, and the psychological weight each team carries. While top teams might have more experience and skill, this advantage can be neutralized by nerves or overconfidence. Underdogs may approach finals with less fear, making them more flexible and opportunistic. Finals also introduce variables like tighter refereeing, higher stakes, and unpredictable momentum shifts. Even small mistakes can change the direction of the game regardless of pre-match predictions. Therefore, being a favourite doesn’t ensure control or success in a final.
Yes, finals tend to be more unpredictable despite the quality of the teams involved. The atmosphere, emotional tension, and high stakes often lead to conservative tactics and fewer open scoring opportunities. Players may perform below or above expectations based on how they handle the mental stress of the occasion. Additionally, refereeing can become more influential, with controversial calls sometimes tipping the balance. While favourites are statistically more likely to win, the final’s pressure-packed environment often creates room for surprises. Fans and analysts regularly witness unexpected results in high-level finals. The emotional intensity makes final matches uniquely difficult to predict.
Pressure in finals can have a dramatic impact on individual and team performance, often altering decision-making and composure. Players who typically excel may struggle under the spotlight, especially if they sense the weight of expectation. This psychological burden can cause errors in passing, shooting, or positioning that would not occur under normal conditions. On the other hand, some athletes thrive in such moments and use the pressure as motivation to elevate their game. Teams that prepare mentally as well as physically usually perform more consistently. The ability to stay focused under stress becomes a critical factor in the outcome. Finals test not just skill, but mental durability.
Underdogs often carry a mental advantage in finals because they face fewer expectations and less public scrutiny. This freedom can translate into greater confidence, creativity, and risk-taking during the game. Without the burden of being favourites, they tend to approach the match with a focused and opportunistic mindset. Opposing teams, especially favourites, may underestimate them or feel additional pressure to justify their status. These dynamics allow underdogs to disrupt the game plan of more established opponents. Coaches also tend to craft flexible strategies that surprise the favourite team. While not always successful, the psychological boost for underdogs is a real and measurable factor.
Finals often feature teams of equal strength that play cautiously due to the high stakes involved. The fear of making mistakes tends to outweigh the desire to take risks, especially in the first half of the game. Coaches may prioritize defense and structure over attacking flair, aiming to avoid falling behind early. As a result, matches are frequently slower and more strategic than previous rounds. This approach leads to closely contested scorelines and a higher chance of extra time or penalties. The cautious rhythm reduces the number of clear scoring chances. Such dynamics explain why finals usually produce lower goal margins.
Experience in previous finals offers a clear psychological advantage because it helps players manage emotions and expectations. Veteran players know how to pace themselves and react calmly to setbacks or referee decisions. Teams with final history also tend to communicate better on the pitch under pressure. Their preparation often includes detailed mental conditioning tailored for high-pressure environments. Coaches who have led teams in finals usually develop stronger match management skills. This accumulated knowledge allows favourites to remain composed during unpredictable moments. Although it doesn’t guarantee success, final experience provides a critical edge in high-stakes matches.
Bookmakers set odds based on statistics, team form, and public betting behavior, but finals introduce variables that are difficult to quantify. Emotional intensity, fatigue, and crowd influence can skew actual performance away from what the odds suggest. Favourites may be overpriced due to public perception rather than realistic probability. Additionally, bookmakers must balance their markets, which means odds reflect expected bets more than pure analytics. In finals, where pressure can dismantle expected tactics, the real edge may not align with market numbers. Bettors should consider psychological and situational factors alongside raw statistics. Blind reliance on odds in finals often leads to misjudgments.
Carrying the label of favourite can increase stress levels within a team, as they are expected to dominate and win convincingly. This expectation creates internal and external pressure that may hinder performance rather than boost it. Players may become overly cautious or too focused on avoiding mistakes, disrupting their natural rhythm. The media narrative also amplifies scrutiny, which adds another layer of distraction. Coaches might alter successful tactics to appear more conservative, fearing the consequences of a bold error. These shifts in mentality can allow opponents to exploit hesitation. In some cases, the favourite’s status becomes more of a burden than an advantage.
Final matches often reward consistency over creative risk because errors carry greater consequences. Teams that stick to disciplined, structured play typically avoid the kinds of mistakes that can turn games around. Creativity still matters, especially when breaking down strong defenses, but it must be calculated rather than spontaneous. Unpredictable plays are useful only when built on a foundation of tactical discipline. The team that balances consistency with timely innovation usually holds the advantage. In the final, strategy and execution are more influential than flair alone. Success tends to come from efficient performance rather than entertainment value.
Absolutely, mental training is a vital component of preparation for any final. The emotional strain of a high-stakes match requires tools to manage stress, regulate nerves, and stay focused under pressure. Teams that invest in psychological coaching often develop stronger internal communication and resilience. Such preparation allows players to handle setbacks during the game without losing composure. Visualization, breathing techniques, and scenario rehearsals are commonly used to build confidence. Without mental readiness, even talented squads may collapse in crucial moments. In finals, mental clarity can determine who lifts the trophy.