Ranked ATP World No. 75, Opelka returns to the tour after injury breaks, once again showcasing his trademark serve-dominated game. Standing at 6’11” (211 cm), he possesses one of the most powerful serves in tennis history, frequently delivering aces and limiting his opponents’ return opportunities. Grass courts amplify his strengths, making him an extremely dangerous opponent when his serve is locked in.
Opelka’s game revolves around short points: a booming first serve, effective one-two combinations, and quick net approaches. His ability to hold serve with ease and create constant pressure on return games allows him to dominate matches on faster surfaces. While his movement is not his greatest asset, his serve often compensates for any baseline shortcomings.
Career highlights include several ATP titles, a Masters 1000 final in Toronto, and consistent performances on fast surfaces, where his style is most effective.
Currently ranked ATP World No. 53, Ugo Carabelli is more accustomed to slower clay courts, where his grinding baseline style thrives. Known for his consistency, footwork, and ability to construct long rallies, the 25-year-old Argentine excels in drawing errors from his opponents by extending points and capitalizing on their mistakes.
On grass, however, Carabelli’s game faces a significant challenge. The low bounce and fast pace of the surface reduce the effectiveness of his topspin-heavy shots and demand quick adjustments. While he possesses excellent defensive skills and court coverage, his limited grass-court experience makes him vulnerable against powerful servers.
His career highlights include multiple Challenger titles and steady climbs up the ATP rankings, primarily through success on clay surfaces.
This match sets up a sharp contrast between Opelka’s serve-based aggression and Carabelli’s patient, defensive style. On grass, Opelka’s ability to fire unreturnable serves and shorten rallies gives him a substantial advantage. Carabelli will attempt to stay in points and pressure Opelka with passing shots, but breaking the American’s serve will be an uphill battle.
If Opelka serves well, as expected on grass, he should control the tempo and close the match in straight sets. Carabelli’s lack of grass-court experience and struggle to return big serves are likely to be decisive factors.
